Part 3: You're Mocking Me! Indicators and Predictions 16-20
Last season, after the 2007 Rookie Draft, I tried to figure out where things went wrong in making the right predictions. I actually came up with 31 indicators (derived from a series of observed facts) that could have helped me make better picks prior to the draft. I have previously posted indicators 1 thru 15. Here are 16 thru 20:
Indicator 16: The truth be known, the information floating around prior to the draft is probably more smoke than fire. Every team tells some little white lies at draft time, as not to tip their hand. Last season, when Green Bay was asked about DT Justin Harrell, the Pack said he wasn't their guy. Guess who was a Green Bay Packer with the 16th pick?
2008 Prediction: Could QB Matt Ryan be a Miami Dolphin, Atlanta Falcon, or Kansas City Chief? The Dolphins have been saying that QB John Beck is progressing nicely. The Falcon’s Owner Arthur Blank really likes Matt Ryan, but also really needs a Defensive Tackle. The Chief’s have been saying that they believe in QB Brodie Croyle, but Ryan could be too good to pass on if the Falcons and Dolphins do. Also Herm Edwards attended the Boston College Pro-day himself. Don’t be surprised if the Dolphins drop hints that they will be drafting Ryan to see if someone will move up for the #1 pick overall. Doubt anyone will bite though and Ryan ends up a Chief or a Raven (at pick #8).
Indicator 17: The closer you get to the draft, the more accurate you can predict a team’s true need. Some teams will address their biggest needs via free agency, some via the draft. It always comes down to picking based on need vs. the best player on the board. Of course, there are always exceptions, like Green Bay taking DT Justin Harrell last draft. Guess they felt the biggest need was DT over what all the experts were predicting!
2008 Prediction: Mock drafts in March look nothing like ones done days before the draft. Miami’s biggest need is OT, although everyone has them taking DE Chris Long. Don’t be surprised if this pick ends up being OT Jake Long instead. The Falcons definitely could use a QB, but with only a few good DT in this draft, don’t be surprised if a player like Glenn Dorsey wins over QB Matt Ryan.
Indicator 18: Running Back by Committee is not a bad thing in the NFL. I think you see teams going this route to save on the pounding that a single running back takes. You can’t rule out a team taking a top running back just because they have one already. The Vikings took Adrian Peterson, even though they had Chester Taylor; Reggie Bush went to the Saint, even though they had Deuce McAllister.
2008 Prediction: Hard to predict were a grood running could land. There are four good running backs predicted to go in the first round this year (Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones). McFadden is the only one listed to go in the Top 10 as of right now (to the Raiders or the jets). This doesn’t mean someone might not try to move up for someone like Medenhall. At #14 and #15 both the Bears and Lions could use a running back!
Indicator 19: Coaches have pride too. A coach might not draft a player that might indicate they made a mistake in a previous draft. I was told last draft that there was no way the Vikings would take Quinn since Childress drafted Tarvaris Jackson. Sure enough, Jackson was the starting QB. No one had the Vikings taking RB Adrian Peterson, and that worked out great for them!
2008 Prediction: Although many Viking fans feel a QB is still the missing piece, even if Ryan somehow fell to the 17th pick, the Vikings will still go Defensive End. I could see them maybe grabbing one of the other top three QBs if they slid to them in the second round (strictly a value pick).
Indicator 20: Quarterbacks don’t always go as early as many people predict. For a team to shell out the first round money a top QB will cost them, that QB needs to be the franchise’s starting QB relatively soon. As a QB starts to fall in the draft though, any team could draft a QB for the value it represents late in the round. Brady Quinn dropped to #22 last year, when the Brown’s traded back into the first round to get him. Matt Leinart, who might have been the first overall pick in 2005, slid to the #10 pick in 2006, being drafted by the Cardinals. Aaron Rogers slid to #24 in 2005, going to the Green Bay Packers. Considering the Packers had Brett Farve, this pick raised a few eyebrows (but great value at that pick). Rogers will finally get his chance to show he was well worth the pick now due to Farve’s retirement.
Prediction 2008: There is no clear cut #1 pick QB in the 2008 draft. QB Matt Ryan will go in the first round somewhere though. There are three other QBs in the draft though, Brian Brohm (Louisville), Joe Flacco (Delaware), and Chad Henne (Michigan), that teams could grab if they miss out on Matt Ryan. Teams needing QBs: Dolphins, Falcons, Chiefs, Ravens, Panthers and Bears. Don't be surprised if these four QBs end up on one of these six teams.
More indicators and predictions to follow…
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