NFL Draft: Indicators and Predictions 21-31

Part 4: You're Mocking Me! Indicators and Predictions 21-31

Last season, after the 2007 Rookie Draft, I tried to figure out where things went wrong in making the right predictions. I actually came up with 31 indicators (derived from a series of observed facts) that could have helped me make better picks prior to the draft. I have previously posted indicators 1 thru 20. Here are 21 thru 31:

Indicator 21: A rookie’s off the field character can cause them to slide in the draft. Last year it was CB Eric Wright. I am sure many NFL teams had the same approach the Saints took last year. "When there is a red flag on a player we don't simply move him way down our draft board, figuring to take him in a later round, we take him off our board completely," Sean Payton said. "That's what I believe in. There are too many good players out there to take any guy who might be a risk."

2008 Prediction: This year it could be RB Darren McFadden. McFadden has had to address questions about his character for off-field incidents. Then again, he might not make it past the Raiders with the fourth overall pick! I think the Raiders can look the other way!

Indicator 22: Injuries can cause rookies to slide down the draft board. This was true of Justin Harwell Harrell last season, who suffered a season ending injury with a partially torn biceps tendon. Also look at the impact Adrian Peterson (who slid to the 7th pick) made for Minnesota last season after the Vikings nabbed him. I guess they were not so concerned about his collarbone!

2008 Prediction: RB Jonathan Stewart could slide down a little due to reports of a turf toe injury. Stewart had a fantastic showing at the Scouting Combine though, so hopefully the injury should not affect his stock too much. He has already had the toe operated on and will be ready to go by summer.

Indicator 23: A good showing at the Combine and at Pro-day events do help rookie players move up in the draft. A bad showing though can drop a rookie out of the first round.

2008 Prediction: On the rise: OLB Vernon Gholston, DE Derrick Harvey, OT Brandon Albert, and OT Chris Williams. On the decline: RB Darren McFadden, WR Early Doucet, and DE Phillip Merling

Indicator 24: Watch what needs are addressed via free agency by a team prior to the draft. Last season many had the Saints drafting a CB in the first round, even though that need was addressed by signing CB Jason David (maybe they still should have gotten a CB in the draft instead of WR Robert Meachem!)

2008 Prediction: There was talk that Seattle could go RB in the first round to replace Shaun Alexander. With the signing of RB Julius Jones and Ron Dayne, it is not likely to happen. Then again, if a player like Jonathan Stewart were to slide, it might not be so bad to grab him. Look for Seattle to go TE, DT, OT or WR instead of RB.

Indicator 25: Off-season trades create needs that can be filled via the draft. Last season you had the Dolphins with Welker/Ginn, the Steelers with Porter/Timmons, and the Bills with McGahee/Lynch.

2008 Prediction: The Patriots definitely need help at CB/S position even with all of the bargain basement CBs the’ve been signing lately. The Lions released RB Kevin Jones, and I just do not see them going with Tatum Bell. Seattle and Denver both could use a kicker as well. I am sure a veteran will be brought in to compete as well.

Indicator 26: Players don’t slide in a draft just because another team fits the need better. Many overlooked Buffalo taking a RB in the first round last season even though McGahee was traded away. Everyone figured Green Bay needed a running rack to replace Ahman Green. It was convenient just to let Lynch slide to Green Bay, but that is not how the NFL works.

2008 Prediction: I have seen a few Mock drafts where DE Chris Long (Howie’s boy) slid to the Raiders. It would be a nice story, but not likely to happen.

Indicator 27: A rookie visiting/meeting with a NFL team multiple times could show how serious that team is about the player, or at the very least about drafting at that position. Last season Safety Brandon Meriweather and the Patriots met three times.

2008 Prediction: Keep an eye on this the closer the draft becomes.

Indicator 28: Why reach for the rookie you want if you can move back and still get the same player. Like I said before, trading at the draft is easier said than done. Last season though, it was reported that the Panther really wanted to draft LB Jon Beason. The Panthers ended up trading with the Jets out of the 14th spot and still drafted Beason at pick #25.

2008 Prediction: Teams that could be looking to move down in the draft – Dolphins, Patriots, Bills; teams that could be looking to move up in the draft – Panthers, Broncos, Cowboys.

Indicator 29: Teams are going to draft rookies that are good fits for their team and not just because they are the top pick on someone’s draft board at that position. Last season the Chargers drafted WR Craig Davis although many felt there were better wide receivers available.

2008 Prediction: The top wide receivers in this year’s draft (Limas Sweed, DeSean Jackson, Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, and James Hardy) could end up going in any order. Look for teams like the Bills, Redskins, Eagles, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Chargers, and maybe even the Steelers to go WR in the first round.

Indicator 30: Teams trade up to get in front of another team that will most likely draft the player they want. Last year the Jets traded with the Panthers to move ahead of the Steelers to draft CB Darrelle Revis. Classic draft move, but very tough to pull off.

2008 Prediction: DT Sedric Ellis has fallen to the Bengals at the 9th spot in a lot of mock drafts. For a team to get Ellis, it looks like you would need to trade up ahead of the Bengals, and I am sure the Patriots would be willing to trade out of the 7th pick to oblige.

And last but not least…

Indicator 31: You can be talented, and still drop out of the first round. Last season, it was DT Alan Branch and OLB Paul Posluszny.

2008 Prediction: Still too close to predict, but right now I would say QB Brian Brohm and LB Dan Connor. I originally had them going in the first round to the Ravens and Giants.

And there you have it…31 Indicators to assist you predicting this year’s rookie draft. Next I will apply these to show how I think this year’s rookie draft could unfold.