Part 1: You're Mocking Me! Indicators and Predictions 1-5
With the 2008 NFL Rookie draft just six weeks away, it is time to consider breaking down the first round, and predicting which rookies will go to what teams. This is done by creating a mock draft. Many mock drafts are done by experts and novices alike every drafting season, especially with regards to the first round.. Predicting the 32 players that will go in the first round correctly though is about as easy as getting all 32 first round winning teams correct in your March Madness Tourney! Like the Tourney, the draft has upsets (via trades) and sleeper picks! Sometimes you can be right on target matching the player to the team, other times you get the right position need, but not the right player.
Last season, after the 2007 Rookie Draft, I tried to figure out where things went wrong in making the right predictions. I actually came up with 31 indicators that could have helped me make better picks prior to the draft. Watching college football could have helped too! lol
Over the next few weeks, I will post some of them, and match these indicators up with possible predictions in the 2008 Rookie Draft.
Indicator 1: See which rookies the team owners are interested in. A team owner usually wins out over a coach since they are the ones shelling out the first round money. Last season it was rumored Al Davis wanted Jarmarcus Russell although Lane Kiffen was rumored to like Brady Quinn better. The Raiders ended up taking Russell as the #1 pick. The same could be said for the 2006 draft with GM Reese preferring Vince Young over Matt Leinart.
2008 prediction: Arthur Blank will have a say if QB Matt Ryan is drafted at #3; Al Davis could still have the Raiders take RB Darren McFadden at #4, although it doesn’t look like he needs a RB right now.
Indicator 2: Top ranked rookies still go in the top of the draft. Calvin Johnson was ranked by many to be the top pick in the draft, although many had him sliding down to Tampa Bay at #4. Johnson ended up being drafted at #2 by the Detroit Lions.
2008 Prediction: The problem with the 2008 rookie draft is that there is no clear-cut number rookie. DT Glenn Dorsey, once the top pick has fallen due to injury. Names being thrown around right now include DE Chris Long, OT Jake Long, RB Darren McFadden, and QB Matt Ryan. This is also a draft class considered strong at RB and CB, but no QBs that you would consider a franchise pick. It would not be surprising to see QB Matt Ryan fall into the late teens in the draft (Dolphins, Falcons, Chiefs, Ravens, Bears, Panthers all could go for the top QB though).
Indicator 3: Once a rookie is drafted, he is most likely not going to be traded away. Historically, rookies that are drafted with top picks are not then traded away. With the exception of the Manning/River trade between the Chargers and the Giants at the 2004 rookie draft, I do not remember this ever happening.
2008 Prediction: Sorry, you are just not going to see Raiders owner Al Davis draft RB McFadden and then trade him to Cowboy’s owner Jerry Jones! If Jerry Jones wants McFadden, he will need to trade up to get the draft pick to do it.
Indicator 4: If a team is trying to move up prior to the draft, they will continue to try at the draft. This was the case with the Broncos, who were looking to move up prior to the draft. They ended up working out a trade with the Jaguars at the draft. The Broncos traded up to the 17th position to draft rookie DE Jarvis Moss. The Jaguars ended up with rookie S Reggie Nelson with the 21st pick.
2008 Prediction: I could see the Broncos maybe try to move up in the draft again this year if a player like DT Glenn Dorsey starts to fall. A good trading partner could be the New England Patriots since they could get the CB or LB they would want later in the draft.
Indicator 5: Teams do not want to pay too much to move up in the draft. Last year, Detroit’s price tag was too high of a price for the #2 pick overall. It made it impossible for a team to move up and get the draft pick from them. Remember, the top 10 picks end up costing you, both to get the pick, and to pay the player selected.
2008 Prediction: Miami would love to trade out of the first pick, but without a clear-cut #1 rookie in the draft, there will most likely be no takers. As a few of the top players possibly start to slide though, you could see a few teams willing to move up to get them (RB McFadden, QB Matt Ryan, and DT Glenn Dorsey)
More indicators and predictions to follow…
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