Part 2: You're Mocking Me! Indicators and Predictions 6-15
Last season, after the 2007 Rookie Draft, I tried to figure out where things went wrong in making the right predictions. I actually came up with 31 indicators (derived from a series of observed facts) that could have helped me make better picks prior to the draft. I previously posted indicators 1 thru 5. Here are 6 thru 15:
Indicator 6: Moving up or back in the draft is easier said than done. It is not easy to trade up or down in the NFL Rookie Draft as the average fan thinks it is. Plus the fact that you are working against the clock does not help either. This is why it will look like a team is reaching for a player early vs. trying to find a trading partner and get that same player at a better spot. Many felt the Dolphins should have traded out of the 9th spot based on who they selected (WR Ted Ginn Jr.)
2008 Prediction: If the Patriots can not trade out of the 7th pick overall, they will most likely draft a CB which many will feel is a reach at this pick. (I am assuming DE Vernon Gholston would not be available at this pick, and it might be too early for OLB Derrick Harvey or OLB Keith Rivers.
Indicator 7: If a team cannot trade out of their current draft pick, they will most likely go for the top rated rookie on their draft board based on need. An NFL team’s draft board though will definitely not match the average fans draft board. Then again, I doubt the average fan has a team of football scouts working at their disposal. In 2007, Arizona taking OT Levi Brown at #5 and Miami taking WR Ted Ginn, Jr. are examples of this.
2008 Prediction: Sorry all 32 teams told me their draft boards were privy information.
Indicator 8: Need trumps talent. Arizona needed an OT and took OT Levi Brown. I am not saying he was not talented, but doubtful many had him as a top five pick on their draft boards. Just because a QB might be ranked 3rd overall, if you don't need one, you are not going to draft one.
2008 Prediction: Right now, OT Ryan Cady could fall into this category. Many don’t feel he is a top10 pick, but if OT Jake Long is gone, many have him as the next available OT.
Indicator 9: Some rookie player will break the top 10 that you would not count on. Last season it was the Miami Dolphins selecting Ted Ginn at #9. The season before it was the Buffalo Bills selecting S Donte Whitner at #8.
2008 Prediction: I am thinking CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could break the top 10 with three teams possibly needing a CB (New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints).
Indicator 10: Trading a veteran player for a draft pick is tough to do at the draft. It does happen, but many times both the team and the player need to come to a contract agreement in principle for it to happen.
2008 Prediction: There is a lot of speculation about Atlanta CB DeAngelo Hall and the possibility of being traded for a draft pick. If it does happen, it most likely would need to happen prior to the draft. (Note: it is now rumored that Hall could be going to the Raiders for a second round draft pick)
And a few common sense ones:
Indicator 11: Teams would like their first round rookie picks to be starters! Chances are teams are going to try and address their biggest need.
Indicator 12: Trading for future year draft picks is always a consideration when planning out draft day trades. The Patriots and the Cowboys were key trading partners in the 2006 draft, allowing other teams to grab rookies that were sliding down in the draft. This year the Patriots have the 49ers 7th pick and the Cowboys have the Browns 22nd pick.
Indicator 13: Later round teams are more likely to trade down than pick second round talent in the first round. Both the Eagles and the Patriots have done this in the past. This is mainly based on getting the same player you were targeting but in the second round. This is always a gamble though.
Indicator 14: Teams with multiple first round draft picks will mostly likely try to move one of the picks than pay two rookies top money. I know this has been true for the Patriots in the past, but I could see the Dallas Cowboys using both the 22nd and 28th pick in this years draft.
Indicator 15: Anything is possible! Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys were trading with each other! Enough said! Serously, anyone can be trading partners. The Patriots have been trading parters with both the Dolphins and the Bills. I think it is safe to assume you will not be seeing and Patriots/Jets trades though!
More indicators and predictions to follow…
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