Putting it on the line: My 2009 NFL Super Bowl Prediction

Everyone one else does it, so why not me? Here is my 2009 NFL Super Bowl Prediction...with a little help from statistics and my gut!

Bill James invented a formula called the Pythagorean expectation to estimate how many games a team "should" have won based on the number of points they scored and allowed. I won’t go into all the math that is involved, but it is interesting how it can be applied to predict wins for the following season. I like using it to try and predict how NFL teams will do during the season. Based on the criteria the theory uses, here is a list of teams that will improve from last season (played under their potential and will win more games), or regress (played over their potential and will win less games). The Pythagorean expectation usually has about a 75% accuracy rate. Don’t get confused…improving doesn’t imply they will make the play-offs! See Detroit Lions!

Note – the wins in ( ) is how many the team won in 2008.

Teams that should Improve:
Jacksonville Jaguars (5 wins), San Diego Chargers (8 wins), Kansas City Chiefs (2 wins), Philadelphia Eagles (9 wins), Green Bay Packers (6 wins), Detroit Lions (0 wins!), New Orleans Saints (8 wins), Seattle Seahawks (4 wins)

Teams that should Regress:
Miami Dolphins (11 wins), Indianapolis Colts (12 wins), Denver Broncos (8 wins), Dallas Cowboys (9 wins), Washington Redskins (8 wins), Carolina Panthers (12 wins), Atlanta Falcons (11 wins)

My Predictions: (Note - I have five teams not returning to the play-offs from the previous year)

AFC East:
New England Patriots (in play-offs)
Miami Dolphins (out of play-offs)
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills

Notes: The Patriots return to the top of the division, and a first round bye in the play-offs. The Dolphins do regress as predicted – no play-offs this season!

AFC North:
Pittsburgh Steelers (return to play-offs)
Baltimore Ravens (return to play-offs)
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns

Notes: The Super Bowl Champs defend their title and home field during the playoffs…the Ravens right behind them!

AFC South:
Indianapolis Colts (return to play-offs)
Houston Texans (in play-offs)
Tennessee Titans (out of play-offs)
Jacksonville Jaguars

Notes: Although predicted to regress, I think there is too much talent for the Colts not to win the division. Texans beat Titans on tie breaker! Sorry Titans, no play-offs this year. Although predicted to improve, I don’t it will be enough for the Jags against the other three teams in the league.

AFC West:
San Diego Chargers (return to play-offs)
Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs

Notes: Chargers definitely will be improved and win the division again. Regressing sure seems like the right prediction with everything that is going on in Denver! Improving from 2 games shouldn’t take much for the Chiefs. Still will be at the bottom of the division though

NFC East:
Philadelphia Eagles (return to play-offs)
New York Giants (out of play-offs)
Dallas Cowboys
Washington Redskins

Notes: The Eagles are picked to improve, and should win the division and make the play-offs again (last year wild card). The Giants are close but do not make it in this year. The Cowboys and Redskins are both picked to regress…and I can see that happening to both teams.

NFC North:
Green Bay Packers (in play-offs)
Minnesota Vikings (return to play-offs)
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions

Notes: A much improved Green Bay Packers team wins the division and makes it to the playoffs…a close second will be the Vikings returning to the play-offs by winning a wild card spot. The Lions are listed to improve, so one measly win should not be out of the question this season (they could get lucky against the Rams or the Browns!)

NFC South:
New Orleans Saints (in play-offs)
Carolina Panthers (return to play-offs)
Atlanta Falcons (out of play-offs)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Notes: Saints predicted to improve, and should win the division…Panthers win other wild card slot. The Falcons are close, but do not make it in. Tampa Bay gets first pick in the 2010 draft!

NFC West:
Seattle Seahawks (in play-offs)
Arizona Cardinals (out of play-offs)
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams

Notes: Seahawks predicted to improve, and should win the division…Cardinals drop out of the play-off hunt. Sorry, last year was a nice run, but a lucky one!

AFC Play-offs:
Steelers – first round bye
Patriots – first round bye
Chargers vs. Texans
Colts vs. Ravens

Steelers vs. Colts
Patriots vs. Chargers

Steelers vs. Patriots

AFC Champion - Patriots

NFC Play-offs:
Eagles – first round bye
Packers – first round bye
Saints vs. Panthers
Seahawks vs. Vikings

Eagles vs. Vikings
Packers vs. Saints

Eagles vs. Packers

NFC Champion - Eagles

Super Bowl: Eagles vs. Patriots (Winner PATRIOTS)

Hey, would you expect anything less from a Patriots fan trapped in Eagles Country??? Would love to have a rematch against Green Bay though!